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Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."